The Pitching Gurus
Musings from the Mound
1. Is Big Z back? – Through 7
starts, Carlos Zambrano is sporting a 1.87 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Is this the magic
of Ozzie and South Beach, or simply a talented arm that’s finally gotten in
shape and begun to utilize front of the rotation stuff with regularity? Perhaps
a little bit of both; getting out of Chicago’s north side has helped Zambrano
eliminate the extracurricular nonsense that always seemed to derail his hot
streaks. Bu he’s also lost 10-12 pounds and added velocity to a fastball that
always had plus movement. The most statistically notable trend for Zambrano is
his BB/9 rate: he is at a career low mark of 3.19 in 2012, and he’s limiting
the long-ball much more than he did in Wrigley’s windy confines. 2. The other JJ – No, not Josh Johnson. Jim Johnson.
The closer for the first place Orioles is absolutely dealing in 2012. He is
14/14 in save opportunities, has already appeared in 18 games through mid-May,
and is dictating ground balls with authority. Looking at Johnson’s batted ball
trends, his groundout-to-flyout rate is a whopping 5.29 in 2012, up from 2.56
in 2011. This guy has always used his heavy fastball to induce grounders, but
in 2012 almost everything has been on the ground. Johnson throws hard and keeps
in on the ground, which is almost always a surefire recipe for success out of
the pen. It’s hard to see him keeping this rate up, but so far in 2012 Jim
Johnson is doing his best Mariano Rivera impression as best closer in the AL
East. 3. Another San Diego
Conversion – In 2011 it was
lefty Cory Luebke who moved from the pen to the rotation for the Pads, striking
out 111 batters in just 17 starts and posting All-Star caliber numbers out of
nowhere. The Pads must see something in their hard throwing relievers, because
in 2012 it’s Anthony Bass doing the same. A career minor-leaguer until 2011,
Bass has a 2.93 ERA through 7 starts in 2012 after moving from the pen to the
rotation in early April. He has 45Ks in 43 innings and opponents are hitting
.226 off him. This could be a nice early story that fizzles in July, but for
now it appears to be another San Diego pitching conversion paying dividends for
the always stingy Padres. 4. King of the Hill – This could be the Red Sox fan in me
talking, but coming off Tommy John a year ago LHP Rich Hill is making lefties
look foolish for Bobby V’s band of underachievers. Lefties have 1 hit against
Hill in 5.1 innings; watching him live over the past week, he has created such
deception with his sweeping curveball that Travis Hafner, Jason Kipnis, Carlos
Pena, and Luke Scott have given up on the breaking pitching halfway, watching
called third strikes spin by. Hill has always had a plus curve, and out of the
pen he’s making the Sox look smart for sticking with him for two years. This,
of course, could all mean nothing if the skinny and oft-injured Hill has more
arm issues down the road. For now however, Hill is one of the elite lefty
matchup plays in the American League, one Valentine is using often in high
leverage situtations. 5. Gio-targeted heat – Maybe he’s sick of being traded. Maybe
it’s the NL and relatively weak offensive division he’s facing. Maybe it’s just
the 27 year olds time. Whatever the cause, the effect of Gio Gonzalez’ outings
has been pure dominance thus far for the Nats. Throw away his awful first start
at Wrigley and this guy has a 1.60 ERA in 7 starts, with a K/9 of 11.10 (tops
in the majors). His BB/9 rate of 3.51 is still pretty high across league
averages, but it does represent a personae career low, which
suggests he’s making adjustments and honing his delivery. And his HR/9 rate-
which has never been terrible but is always something to watch with high volume
strikeout artists- is at a miniscule 0.18 in 2012. Strikeout rates above 11.00
and homerun trends that low are statistics that suggest dominance. I see no
reason for Gio to slow down in 2012, and Cy Young contention is absolutely
realistic for this wiry southpaw who has been dealt four times in his career:
for Jim Thome in 2005, Freddy Garcia in 2007, Nick Swisher in 2008, and a handful
of Nationals prospects in 2011.
Welcome Back?
Just how much can Andy Pettitte be expected to contribute to the Yankees this year?
Andy Pettitte's career resume and postseason pedrigree are undeniable, but do the Yankees need the 39-year old?
Friday,
March 16 was a big day in Yankeeland. Andy Pettitte, who had ridden off into
the sunset (supposedly for good) following the 2010 season, announced that he
was coming out of retirement, signing a $2.5 million minor league deal with the
Pinstripes. Of course, it will take some time for Pettitte to round back into
form. He is expected to begin the season in the minors and perhaps return to
the big club sometime in the first couple of months of the season. Optimistic Yankee fans might
think that Pettitte, once he gets his arm a little loose, can return right back
to 2010 form, when he finished with 11 wins, a 3.28 ERA, and 7 K/9 innings.
However, are those really the kinds of numbers Pettitte can put up for the 2012
Yankees, or are there other factors that might require fans to temper their
expectations? While Pettitte’s 2010 numbers
(11-3 record, 3.28 ERA, 1.271 WHIP) were indeed the best numbers he had put up
since 2005 with the Astros, they appear to be more of an outlier than the
established norm. Between 2006 and 2009, Pettitte pitched between 195 and 215
innings each season, while his ERA sat between 4.05 and 4.54 and his WHIP
landed in the 1.382-1.437 range. All told, that’s a four-year performance
spanning a little over 800 innings (a pretty significant sample size), with an
ERA in the low 4s and a WHIP just over 1.4. It’s rare that a pitcher in the
later stages of his career is going to be able to maintain such a significant
improvement in performance for more than one season. While there’s no way of
knowing for sure, the odds are more likely that had he pitched in 2011, his
numbers would have regressed back to his pre-2010 form. This may be the most important
factor to take into account. The last time Pettitte toed a big league mound, he
was 38 years old. There’s a reasonable chance that the next time he will see
significant innings in the bigs, he will have celebrated his 40th birthday (June 15). While Pettitte
always defied age by showing a strong ability to change speeds with less than
flashy stuff (upper-80s fastball, mid-80s cutter, and high-70s changeup), the
fact of the matter is that pitchers at that point in the aging curve don’t
always find success as easily as they did in their younger days. Prediction
Earlier Performance
It’s also important to note that Pettitte’s solid 2010 performance also came in
a much smaller sample size. A left groin injury shelved Pettitte for nearly two
months between the middle of July and early September, limiting him to only 129
innings that season, which was his lowest innings total since 2004, and the second
lowest of his career.
Age
Current Rotation
Even before Pettitte announced his comeback, the Yankees had a glut of starting
pitching depth. CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova are
already penciled in to the first four spots of the rotation. In addition,
Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes are battling for the fifth spot, with guys like
Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos down on the farm nearly ready to contribute.
This creates a lot of potential scenarios for the Yankees. Do they make Hughes
or Garcia the long man in the bullpen, while the other claims the fifth spot?
Do they put Pettitte in the fifth slot of the rotation while trading one of
Hughes or Garcia to fill other positional needs? The fact of the matter is
that, despite everything Pettitte has done for the team since 1996, there is
not currently a spot in the rotation for him. Of course, injury or
ineffectiveness could solve this problem immediately, but from the looks of
things, Pettitte may have to wait for a few pieces to fall into place before he
gets significant innings.
In the end, I feel like it will take Pettitte about a month to
round into game form before being called up to the Bronx. By then, maybe
Michael Pineda’s reduced velocity in the Spring will have carried over to the
regular season, or Ivan Nova will have had a mean case of regression after
outperforming his peripherals last season, or Phil Hughes will be wearing a
different uniform. Either way, Pettitte will find a way to squeeze into the end
of the rotation, and will be able to give the Yankees about 100 innings. In
terms of performance, I’m not expecting Pettitte to be anything more than
league-average, or maybe slightly above. The potent offense should give him
somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 wins, but hoping for an ERA better than
about 4.25 or 4.50 might be a little too optimistic, especially pitching in the
AL East.
Moore Than He Bargained For
It wasn't so long ago - June 8, 2010, in
fact - that Stephen Strasburg toed the rubber in Washington, D.C. for his Major
League debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates. To that point, Strasburg was the
most hyped prospect in the history of the sport (that is, of course, until
Bryce Harper was drafted the following year). Two hours later, the events that
transpired were nothing short of magical. Seven innings, two runs, 14
strikeouts, and a legend that was just beginning to unfold.
For months, even years, leading up to his debut, pundits touted Strasburg as
the best pitching prospect in the game, as well as the best prospect the sport
has seen this generation. For two months following his debut, Strasburg lived
up to this nearly impossible billing...that is, until a fateful pitch against
the Phillies on August 21, when he grimaced in pain after feeling a twinge in
his elbow. That twinge would wind up being his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL,
for short), and would wind up shelving him for more than a year.
Even though Strasburg came back no worse for the wear at the end of the 2011
season, showing flashes of what is likely to make him a perennial Cy Young
candidate, the prospect landscape changed significantly over the 12 months he
spent rehabbing his elbow. Matt Moore, Tampa Bay's 8th round draft pick in
2007, went from a player who was just beginning to make a name for himself, to
a player who put up video game numbers for three consecutive seasons down on
the farm. Those same pundits who once touted Stephen Strasburg as baseball's #1
pitching prospect were now hopping on the Matt Moore bandwagon, which raises
the question - is Matt Moore really better than the
"once-in-a-generation" Strasburg?
To determine the answer to this question, let's break each pitcher down into a
few key categories.
Stuff/Repertoire
After his callup near the end of the 2011 season, Matt Moore brought three
pitches to the table. His fastball was nothing short of electric, coming in
consistently in the 95-97 range from the left side. He also threw a dastardly
knuckle-curve that would sit in the low 80s, while occasionally hitting 85+. He
rounded things off with a slightly less-seen changeup in the mid-to-upper 80s.
It's almost unfair that despite having so little big league experience, Matt
Moore already brings two plus pitches to the table, with a third pitch that
should reach plus-level in short order.
Strasburg brings a similar repertoire to the mound, except from the right side.
Upon arriving in the bigs in 2010, his fastball would occasionally hit triple
digits, while consistently hitting the 98-99 mark. Post-surgery, he shed a
couple of ticks off the heater, but would still bring it in around 95-96, while
flashing as high as 99. He throws a wicked high-70s curveball, as well as a
changeup that sits around fastball speed, coming in around 89-91.
EDGE: The difference in pure stuff is negligible at this point, but I
feel as if the slight advantage has to go to Moore, simply because he is a
southpaw, and southpaws who can deliver near Randy Johnson-type velocity on
their fastballs with a free and easy windup are almost impossible to find.
Numbers
Matt Moore is a veteran of nearly 500 minor league innings, which is
clearly a big enough sample size to determine what he's all about. You can put
aside the fairly ordinary W/L record, since wins are an extremely overrated
statistic to begin with. The more important numbers are the 2.64 ERA, the 700
strikeouts and the 338 hits in 497 1/3 innings. That translates to 12.67 K/9,
and 6.12 H/9. The competition might be easier than the bigs, but to do that for
500 innings is no small feat. It's too early to analyze his major league
numbers to this point, but 15 K's in 9 1/3 innings could indicate that he will
continue to dominate at the highest level.
Strasburg only needed 55 innings (not including the 20 he threw while rehabbing
last season) in the lower levels before making it to the show. In those 55
innings, he allowed 31 hits, struck out 65, and maintained an ERA of 1.30. I
could argue that his numbers aren't as impressive as Moore's because he didn't
dominate for as many innings as Moore did, but let's face it...Strasburg didn't
NEED the innings. He was ready to pitch in the bigs before he even graduated
college. In terms of his performance at the highest level, he has thrown 92
innings, while striking out 116, allowing 71 hits, and maintaining an ERA in
the mid 2's.
EDGE: Once again, the difference is negligible, but I have to go with
Strasburg solely based on the fact that he has more experience in the Majors,
and he has already proven that he will be more than capable of absolutely
dominating even the best hitters.
Health
This might seem like an unfair bit of analysis, since it is abundantly clear
who gets the edge here, but the fact remains that health is vital to the career
path of any player, whether they are a utility player or an elite prospect.
Matt Moore has remained healthy throughout his entire Minor League career,
while Strasburg has obviously had the significant elbow injury before even
reaching the 100-inning threshold. Of course, this doesn't mean anything,
because Strasburg could stay off the DL for the rest of his career while Moore
throws three pitches in 2012 before snapping a ligament, sending him down the
Mark Prior/Kelvim Escobar/Chad Fox career path. At this moment, though,
Strasburg's health is the much bigger question mark.
EDGE: Moore.
After all this analysis, it is still too hard to determine who will wind up
being the better prospect of the two. If all goes well for both pitchers, I
believe Strasburg has the higher ceiling, but only by the slightest of margins.
The elbow injury is a big red flag, though, and it will likely not be until
2013 that Nationals' brass allows Strasburg to throw a full season's worth of
innings to see if his body will hold up. Either way, the fact that we have two
pitching prospects of this caliber beginning their Major League careers at the
same time should make for some entertaining baseball for many, many years to
come.
Hey Yu
NPB Stats (2007-2011): 76-28, 50 CG, 15 SHO, 1024.1 IP, 1083 K, 1.72 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 4.9 SO/BB
For anyone expecting Yu Darvish to be the next Daisuke Matsuzaka...he's not. Darvish is far more polished, with a more dynamic repertoire, and an extroverted (almost Jose Valverde-esque) passion on the bump that will help him fit right in with the Nolan Ryan/Mike Maddux pitching regime. This video shows off Yu's entire repertoire...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMkKk8s0CFI
Fastball (90-97 MPH, 144-156 KPH) - Darvish features two and four-seam fastballs, in, out, up and down, showing supreme command and knowledge of the strike zone. He can get whiffs upstairs, bore the heater off the outer edge and freeze hitters on the inside corner.
Slider (80-86 MPH, 128-138 KPH) - This is Yu's primary complement to the gas. It's most effective away to righties, falling off the table low and away, but it can be equally effective diving down on the shoe tops of lefties, or even as a backdoor option, grabbing the corner for a called strike. Darvish will use this pitch in any count to any batter.
Splitter (86-90 MPH, 138-145 KPH) - A great strikeout option, Darvish gets prototypical tumble and dive. It makes hitters look foolish at times, looking like a fastball until the last split second, mostly featured with two strikes, but he'll use it at any time to lefties. He will offer up an occasional straight changeup as well, in the low-mid 80's (132-138 KPH).
Cutter (89-92 MPH, 143-148 KPH) - Utilized mostly in on the hands of lefties, Darvish breaks a fair amount of bats with this variation of his heater. It's subtle, yet effective, and when not breaking bats, weak contact can be expected. After a bit more seasoning, this could be a valuable weapon to either side of the plate to any hitter.
Curveball (60-79 MPH, 95-127 KPH) - Darvish throws breaking balls at just about any velocity in a 25 MPH range, only adding to his effectiveness. He throws 2 versions of a hook, dropping in a slow breaker for a called strike early in the count, as well as a hammer that escalates towards 80 MPH as a strikeout pitch.
No Relief In Sight
Flaws will be exposed if these 4 young hurlers join the rotation
Feliz, Bard, Sale and Crow could be four elite closers in baseball, but a transition to the rotation could limit their ceiling
When examining the present-day landscape of Major League Baseball, one may find it puzzling that any team would try to take a dominant, power-armed reliever type and expect their skill set to immediately carry over into a starting role, with similar success. Neftali Feliz (TEX), Daniel Bard (BOS), Chris Sale (CWS) and Aaron Crow (KC) are rumored to be making such a transition this spring. However, their success in 1-2 inning stints may have tantalized team brass into taking a risky step while developing these young talents. C.J. Wilson was the poster child for this transition, but none of these four have the deep starter's repertoire that Wilson features.
Neftali Feliz is the most decorated reliever of this young quartet, saving 81 games (including post-season) in 92 opportunities over the past 3 seasons, including a crash course in the pressure cooker that is American League playoff baseball. Feliz features a boring mid-upper 90's fastball, along with 2 variations of a slurve that deviate about 6-8 MPH, as well as a power vulcan change that is still very much in its developmental stage. This glimpse of a 4-pitch repertoire is clearly a determining factor in Nolan Ryan's decision to give the young right-hander a chance to start.
A move to the rotation will do two more things to Feliz; A) bring his heater down to the low-mid 90's, which will no doubt make his developing change (which doesn't always deviate proportionally when a pitcher loses MPH's to his fastball) less effective, and B) make Feliz' main glaring weakness (a very pedestrian 1.8 SO/BB ratio) much more relevant and debilitating. Did I mention that Texas already has 5 quality starters minus Feliz? Give me a starting staff of Darvish, Lewis, Holland, Ogando and Harrison with Feliz remaining in the closer role. Feliz may not be a significant upgrade to the current starting rotation, but going from Feliz to an aging Joe Nathan may be a significant downgrade in the 9th inning.
Daniel Bard may be a bit shell-shocked as a future closer, as he's blown 15 of 20 save opportunities while being the main setup man for new Phillies' closer Jonathan Papelbon over the past 3 seasons. Despite the fact that he's never been given a legitimate chance to close, he has 79 holds over the past 3 years, and a 3+ SO/BB ratio. While the Red Sox have acquired Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey to take on 8th and 9th inning roles with the possible absence of Bard, moving this former Tarheel to the rotation may not be the best thing for a guy who still only throws 2 pitches to righties (fastball, slider), and has been atrocious as a minor league starter (7.08 ERA in 22 career starts). A late inning trio of Bard, Melancon and Bailey is very exciting, especially with Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz still holding down the top 3 spots in the Red Sox rotation, with a cornucopia of options (Aceves, Padilla, Cook, Miller, Ohlendorf (gulp), Silva (double gulp)) in the 4 and 5 spots.
Chris Sale was summoned to the big leagues faster than any young hurler in recent memory, with the caveat that he would eventually be moved to the rotation once he matures. Sale does have a more complete repertoire than any pitcher mentioned in this piece, featuring a dastardly changeup and sweeping slider that more than complements his mid-high 90's gas. But he, like Feliz, may have trouble with walks in the rotation, as his slider is rarely thrown for a strike. Once hitters learn to lay off (which they will after facing him three times a game as opposed to once), he may be in trouble, especially against lefties, as his changeup is thrown exclusively to righties. Also, like Feliz, his team could boast a fine starting staff (Danks, Floyd, Peavy, Humber, Stewart) without his inclusion, with all 5 possessing a complete, 4-pitch starter's repertoire. After losing Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor via trade this off-season, Sale's value to the Pale Hose pen is much greater than his value to the rotation.
Aaron Crow's situation is a bit different, as the Royals have already conceded that he will not be a full-time member of the rotation in 2012, but more realistically, given 10-15 starts as a cameo to a possible full-time role in 2013 and beyond. This is a smart move, as Crow struggled a bit down the stretch as a reliever in 2011, after an All-Star first half which saw him register a 2.08 ERA (he didn't give up a run in his first 13 outings). Also, with Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen and a herd of young starters headlined by Danny Duffy and Mke Montgomery (Odorizzi, Lamb, etc.), maybe grooming Crow as the heir apparent to Joakim Soria (after the Royals realize they cannot afford him) may be a more prudent move. The Royals have just as much depth in their young bullpen, but most of them profile as middle relief/setup guys, while Crow has the lights-out stuff to close ball games for a long time.
Bullpen performance is, and will continue to be, a larger factor in overall team success in Major League Baseball. All 4 of the young pitchers chronicled in this piece will have a more positive impact on their respective team's bullpens heading into 2012, and all have the ability to have more prominent careers as closers than starters. I doubt Feliz, Bard, Sale or Crow have futures as #1 starters on a championship team, while all 4 have everything it takes to close out games in dominant fashion for many years to come.
Career Tribute
As an Astro, Octavio Dotel logged 400+ innings, mostly building a bridge for Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge
As soon as Octavio Dotel appears in one game for the Detroit Tigers in 2012, he will have played for more teams than any other player in MLB history. In many ways, he is a modern-era trade chip that never loses value, but in many more ways, Dotel has proven his worth year after year as a rock solid right arm in a Major League bullpen.
Dotel's repertoire hasn't changed much since 1999 (when he first debuted for the Mets). He's rolled with a fastball in the 92-96 MPH range, with some effective natural cutting action, to go along with two breaking pitches that have served as wicked strikeout pitches for over a decade. His two-plane slider has been his meal ticket, but he's incorporated a 12-6 variation to help combat lefties as well. When healthy, he's never needed to make too many adjustments to get big league hitters out on a consistent basis. He's never used a changeup, never adjusted his delivery, or worked out of the windup. He just gets results.
It's hard to say Dotel has ever been a dominant, lights-out kind of reliever, although he's had his moments. He's been a manager on the top step of the dugout kind of late inning guy, but it hasn't ever prevented him from finding work. That's what makes him such a fascinating figure, to have survived so long without ever being considered elite within his position (without being a loogy). He's worked in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings since 2000, and remained effective without having to change his modus operandi (M.O.).
Now, in 2012, when looking back, he's pitched for the Mets, Astros, A's, Yankees, Royals, Braves, White Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Blue Jays and Cardinals. Last year, he finally got his first World Series ring. In 2012, he could be well on his way to another. One thing is for sure, he's done it his way, finding his way onto a Major League roster year after year, earning over 35 million dollars in the process. Baseball needs more pitcher like Octavio Dotel.
Southern Dandy
Kimbrel has seamlessly taken the 9th inning torch from Billy Wagner
Entering 2011, the Kimbrel vs. Venters debate was evenly sided, but the right-hander was the right choice
2011 Stats: 4-2, 42/47 Saves, 1.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 14.81 K/9, 68 2/3 IP, 1 HR allowed
This flame-throwing 23 year old righty is doing something that, quite frankly, the baseball world has not seen before from a rookie closer. On his way to shattering every rookie saves record out there and whiffing guys at a historic rate, Kimbrel is in the midst of a pretty remarkable scoreless streak.
Craig gave up his last earned run on June 11th (to the Astros, of all teams). Since that day, these numbers speak to a level of dominance we haven’t seen since Eric Gagne’s elite days in LA:
30 appearances, 36 2/3 IP, 24/24 Saves, 0.00 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 65 K, 11 BB
I’m not sure people realize just how dominant this guy has been for over two months, as a rookie, in the middle of a playoff race. The comparison I’ve heard a few times is that he’s essentially a right handed Billy Wagner- a guy who comes at you with a fastball that sits at 96 MPH and can touch 100, a biting slider at 86, and a confident southern disposition. Thus far, the comparison sticks.
Unlike Wagner, however, Kimbrel has yet to utilize a third offering and has not experienced Tommy John surgery. I would argue that Craig’s development of the former is essential to avoid the latter. Wagner’s splitter was a valuable pitch later in his career, as he mixed it into his arsenal as much as 10% of the time in 2008. It was always something the hitter had to keep in the back of his mind, and that alone often can be the difference between a 98 MPH heater getting fouled off or catching a batter looking. We saw Kimbrel toy with a straight change in 2010, and eventually he’ll need to season that pitch to protect his elbow from over usage of the slider. This is especially crucial given how much Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez continues to use his rookie stopper; he’s currently got Kimbrel on an 82 regular season appearance pace.
However Kimbrel develops in the future, the 2011 version deserves unanimous NL ROY votes and is striking guys out at a rate that even first ballot Hall of Famer Billy Wagner never touched during a full season. He’s a special asset that the Braves should protect with diligence.
Suspended in Mediocrity
Once a 20-year old can't-miss prospect, Porcello has seen his share of growing pains
2011 Stats: 11-8, 4.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.32 K/9, 49% GB rate
Still just 22 years old, maybe it’s a bit early to be overly critical on the 27th overall pick of the 2007 Draft. Makeup has always been an asset for Porcello, but as we move into the latter stages of 2011- Rick’s third season in the big leagues- it’s the stuff and statistics that have me worried.
Porcello came up as an amateur arm out of Seton Hall Prep in New Jersey and was given a huge $3.5M signing bonus. He was billed as an extreme groundball pitcher, a guy who possessed Derek Lowe-like sink to his 2-seamer. He could also ramp up his 4-seamer to 96/97 MPH and owned two fringy breaking pitches and a workable changeup. With a decent four pitch mix and an identity on the mound, Porcello seemed to only need big league seasoning before he become the “bona fide ace” that Scott Boras billed him as during pre-draft scouting evaluations.
I often have felt like Porcello was rushed to the show. Maybe the hard contact has affected his mental approach to pitching to contact. Maybe New Jersey is just not that good of a high school baseball landscape, and his hype entering the draft was inflated.
Whatever the reason, his career numbers depict a bottom the rotation arm to this point:
82 GS, 35-29, 4.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 5.25 K/9, 51.3 GB%
The groundball rate is what worries me most; given that Rick is not generating a lot of swings-and-misses, his groundball rate is crucial to success. Derek Lowe, Charlie Morton and Trevor Cahill- other groundball specialists- are in the 56-59% range with their GB%, and that is where Porcello needs to be. Less groundballs generally means more fly balls, and for his career Porcello owns an 11% HR/FB rate. Translation: when batters put the ball in the air vs. Porcello, they generally do so with authority.
In terms of weaknesses in his approach and execution, I see two things that could use tweaking. First, Porcello’s slider usage has increased in each of his three seasons, and is up to 20% in 2011. For a pitch that has minimal bite and doesn’t register as a true swing-and-miss pitch, this is a bit much for me. Second, he still has not mastered the execution of his two-seamer to left handed hitters. Porcello generates good tail with his offering, but far too often it starts off on the inside corner and ends up in the middle of the plate getting crushed. When guys like Derek Lowe are most effective, their 2-seamer starts out at the hip of a lefty, freezing him with tail over the inside edge. Porcello simply leaves that pitch- one that should be a distinct weapon- over the center of the plate too much.
Porcello still has a lot of time to figure it out. But as of now, he has simply not developed into the #2 behind Justin Verlander that many Tigers fans hoped he would.
Taking the 5th
A look back at the profiled 5th starters and how they've fared in 2011
If nothing else, Brad Penny's pitch selection has made him interesting the first half of 2011
At the beginning of the season, I took a look at five pitchers who were expected to earn their paychecks at the back of their respective team's rotations. I made some bold (and some not so bold) predictions about how they would perform, and what it would take for them to have a positive impact on their club's performances throughout the season. Today, as we pass the midway point of the 2011 season, I want to take a look at each of these pitchers to see just how they've matched up to expectations.
Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
For most of Spring Training, it seemed like a surefire bet that Mike Minor was going to be handed the Braves' fifth starter spot, as well as a permanent place in the rotation. However, the keys were given to Brandon Beachy at the last minute, and the only start Minor made before May 25 this year was a spot start in early April after Jair Jurrjens opened the season on the DL.
Between May 25 and June 21 (when Minor was optioned back to Triple-A), Minor made five starts, throwing 29 innings, while allowing 31 hits, 12 earned runs, walking 11 and striking out 24. Those are very solid numbers, but the fact is, with the impressive performances of the Braves' current starting five (including Beachy, who has been nothing short of dominant thus far), there's really no room for Minor to make anything more than the occasional spot start.
Minor will not be held down for too long, as his low 90s fastball, low 80s change, and two developing breaking pitches are too good to stay in the Minors. However, with all the buzz surrounding him in Spring Training, one can't help but feel that Minor is disappointed with how this season has panned out so far.
Brad Penny, Detroit Tigers
No one really knew what to expect of Penny coming into the season. He had experienced frequent health issues, and the constant shipping from team to team couldn't have done much for his confidence. Thus far, the consistent health has been a pleasant surprise, as has the reasonable level of effectiveness. However, looking at some of the numbers shows that Penny has been walking the tightrope this season. To this point, he has made 17 starts, averaging a little over six innings per start. While he has never been a high strikeout pitcher (only three times even topping 7.0 K/9 in a season), his inability to miss bats this year has been unsettling. In 103.2 innings, he has only managed 44 strikeouts, translating to a rate of 3.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. His ERA is at a passable 4.43, but there are very few pitchers who can survive in the Major Leagues with strikeout rates that low.
A deeper look into his pitch breakdown shows that he is still generating a lot of low 90s fastballs. However, perhaps as a way of giving batters a slightly different look, Penny has turned to a mid-to-high 80s slider in the recent weeks after rarely using the pitch in the opening month of the season. Even stranger, Penny incorporated a handful of knuckleballs into a couple of his early June starts. While that pitch has gone back into hibernation since then, it's still something his opponents should keep an eye out for.
It is becoming more obvious that Penny has to become a little craftier in order to get by in the Major Leagues, but to this point, he has performed acceptably well by fifth starter standards. He will need to keep pitching at this level in order to help a consistently underperforming pitching staff (with the obvious exception of Justin Verlander) stay close in an extremely tight AL Central race. Finding a way to generate a few extra punchouts would be a huge step in the right direction.
Kyle McClellan, St. Louis Cardinals
At the beginning of the season, a lot of people figured that no amount of good pitching could help a Cardinals squad that just lost one of the best pitchers in the league in Adam Wainwright. However, the skeptics have been proven wrong to this point, as the Cardinals are right in the thick of a four-team NL Central race (tied for first with the Brewers as of July 4), and Kyle McClellan has contributed to that.
Through 15 starts, McClellan has thrown 90.2 innings, while allowing 93 hits, and maintaining a 4.27 ERA. That is really all the Cardinals could have asked from McClellan at this point. There are, however, two red flags that could be pointing to a bleaker second half to his season. First off, McClellan's strikeout rate is only marginally better than Brad Penny's. In those 90.2 innings, McClellan has sent 47 batters back to the dugout shaking their heads, which translates to a mere 4.7 K/9 ratio. Second of all, McClellan has looked far from serviceable in his five most recent starts. His numbers in those five starts are as follows: 27 innings, 35 hits, 21 earned runs, 11 walks and 15 strikeouts. As a result, his ERA has jumped from 3.11 to the 4.27 where it currently stands. Of course, McClellan has proven he is not THAT bad of a pitcher, but if he wants to help keep his team in the thick of a very crowded divisional race, he has to recapture some of that early-season magic in short order.
Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
There were big expectations for Jeremy Hellickson coming into this season. This being his first full Major League season, Hellickson had the potential to turn himself into the latest of Tampa Bay's brilliant draft products of the 21st century. While we can safely say that Hellickson has not yet ascended to staff ace, he is definitely laying the foundation for what should be a long and prosperous Major League career.
Through 16 starts, Hellickson has taken his low-90s fastball, mid-70s curveball, and low-80s plus changeup and translated it into an 8-7 record with a 3.21 ERA. His strikeout rate has not been as impressive as it was in a small sample last season, but it is still only slightly below league average (68 K's in 103.2 innings, or approximately 6 K's/9 innings). However, he is holding opposing batters to a .210 batting average as a product of only allowing 80 hits in those 103.2 innings. Furthermore, if he had a little more run support, he might be a couple of wins further above that .500 mark.
David Price and James Shields (surprise, surprise) have established themselves as the clear #1 and #2 pitchers on this staff, but Hellickson has used his solid performance to put a stranglehold on the #3 spot in the staff, which is a lot more than most 24 year olds with only 140 innings of Major League experience can say for themselves. If Hellickson can continue this performance, then he can team up with Price and Shields to form a triumvirate of pitching awesomeness that can help keep the Rays within reach of (at least) a Wild Card spot.
Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
I should put an asterisk next to Kazmir's name, because he is the only one of these five who isn't with the team he began the season with. Unfortunately, Kazmir isn't with ANY Major League team right now. Even more unfortunately, Kazmir isn't even playing baseball at any level at the current time.
Kazmir came into this season looking to shake off last season's festival of crap. Unfortunately, all it took was one awful start before realizing that Kazmir's problems were only just beginning. In that one start, he only lasted 1.2 innings, allowing five runs and five hits while walking two and hitting two more. Further, his velocity didn't even get out of the 80s, sitting at 86-87 MPH, which is a far cry from his Tampa heyday where his fastball would routinely sizzle in the mid 90s.
The Angels placed Kazmir on the DL after that nightmarish outing in order to help him sort his mechanics out. In May, he was sent to the Angels' Triple-A affiliate for a rehab stint. What ensued there might have been one of the worst displays of pitching this side of Steve Blass. In five starts, Kazmir only lasted 15.1 innings, allowing 29 earned runs (for a nifty 17.02 ERA), walking 20, hitting six batters, and uncorking five wild pitches. As a result, the Angels mercifully cut bait with Kazmir in the middle of June, despite almost $15 million remaining on his contract.
It might not happen this season, but at least one team out there will take a flyer on Kazmir in hopes of squeezing value out of him. He's young (turns 27 in August), and was formerly one of the best pitchers in the American League, so there's still something to like here.
While it's sad to see just how far Kazmir has fallen in such a short time, perhaps there is hope that someone somewhere can resurrect this pitcher, maybe in the same fashion that Kerry Wood resurrected his career as a reliever. Only time will tell.
Starting Strength
The Mariner rotation has gone from 'full of questions' to 'full of answers' in 2011
The 2011 M's are led by the ace (Hernandez), the young gun (Pineda), and the crafty vet (Bedard)
Pop quiz: Who is the only team to use the same five starters to make every start in 2011? If you didn't guess the Seattle Mariners, I wouldn't blame you. If you did, you cheated. This rotation had as many question marks as any team in baseball heading into this season. Behind the reigning Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez, no one had a job nailed down at the start of spring training. But manager Eric Wedge and pitching coach Carl Willis have managed to send out the same five guys for all 80 starts this season. Not only that, all 5 have an sub 3.89 ERA, and each gets the job done in their own way.
Felix Hernandez - Fastball 91-96 MPH Curveball 80-84 MPH Changeup 89-91 MPH Slider 84-88 MPH
King Felix is a true ace in every sense of the word. He has three outstanding offerings in his fastball, curveball and change that he will throw at any time. His slider could be as effective, he just doesn't use it very much, nor does he need to. The fastball explodes like a cannonball out of his right hand, and his changeup (which many announcers call a fastball because it consistently registers in the low 90's) is delivered with outstanding arm action, diving much like a split-finger fastball. Hernandez' curveball is a chameleon offering that he can drop in for a called strike, bury to make hitters look foolish, or even to induce some weak contact. His results this season aren't surprising, but impressive nonetheless.
Michael Pineda - Fastball 94-98 MPH Slider 82-87 Changeup 87-91
Pineda was always expected to be a big piece of the M's rotation, just not at such an early age. Much debate was had over Pineda's role in the 2011 season, but he's shown that age is only a number, and he pitches well beyond his years. Let's start with the adjectives; Pineda is young, big, strong, durable and poised. He doesn't beat himself with walks, and gets big punchouts when he needs to escape a jam. He pitches economically with 'Nintendo' stuff, understanding that if opposing hitters can't do much with the fastball, there is no need to use the slider and change (which are both highly effective). The young right-hander is just scratching the surface, and is the complete package.
Erik Bedard - Fastball 90-93 MPH Cut Fastball 89-92 MPH Curveball 76-79 MPH Changeup 77-81 MPH
Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik took a lot of heat for the haul he gave up for Erik Bedard in 2008 (most notably Adam Jones and Chris Tillman), but in 2011, he is showing the ability which allowed the Orioles to get such a haul. Bedard will mix his 3 main offerings (fastball, cutter, curveball) very equally and effectively, using a delivery in which he almost completely turns his back to opposing hitters before unleashing a low 90's fastball or curveball from about 3 different arm angles. He got off to a bit of a slow start coming back from serious injury, but since then, he's been as good as any pitcher in all of baseball, and will possibly be a huge trade chip as this year's deadline approaches, if the M's are out of contention.
Doug Fister - Fastball 88-92 MPH Curveball 73-77 MPH Changeup 81-84 MPH Cut Fastball 85-88 MPH
A few years ago, Fister was really nothing more than organizational depth, but got his chance late in 2009 and made the most of the opportunity. He uses every last inch of a 6'8" frame, creating a tough downward plane for opposing hitters. Nothing he throws is straight, he doesn't hurt himself with walks, or hang hittable pitches over the dish. He's developed a cutter over the last season which has become a solid reciprocal offering of his 2-seam fastball. A good but not great 4-pitch repertoire with just about every intangible in the book has led to Fister's success, despite a hard luck 2011 record.
Jason Vargas - Fastball 86-89 MPH Changeup 79-82 MPH Cut Fastball 83-85 MPH Curveball 73-76 MPH
Vargas was quite the opposite of Fister coming up through the Marlins system as a top prospect out of Long Beach State. He was probably rushed to the majors too quickly by the Fish, but over the last couple seasons, he has found a home in Seattle. His fastball/changeup combo from the left side is really difficult to square up for opposing hitters, and the addition of a cut fastball a couple seasons ago has given him a quality third pitch and another option in strikeout situations. He also adds to his effectiveness with a deceptive delivery from the left side, much like Bedard.
